Close-win regression Developing estimate
Indiana enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMinnesota at Indiana
Week 9 · Oct 31Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Bloomington, IN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Indiana -22.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -22.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusIndiana -20.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Indiana -20.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward MinnesotaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Cold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Indiana has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Indiana is favored by 20.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Indiana begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Indiana ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Indiana lost the most recent meeting with Minnesota.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Indiana lost the most recent meeting with Minnesota by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Indiana faces materially stronger USC in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Indiana is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger USC.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Minnesota was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Minnesota enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Minnesota is a 20.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Minnesota 16 · Indiana 23
- Pregame OV Line
- Indiana -22.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Indiana -20.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Indiana by 7
Observed 9h 55m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineIndiana -22.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -22.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIndiana -19.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Indiana -19.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Minnesota 4.0%Indiana 96.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Indiana -20.5
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