Close-win regression Developing estimate
Washington enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMinnesota at Washington
Week 4 · Sep 26Husky Stadium · Seattle, WA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Washington -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Washington -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusWashington -1210-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 10:45 PM EDT
Washington -1210-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 10:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward MinnesotaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Washington begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Washington ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Washington faces materially stronger USC in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Washington is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger USC.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Minnesota enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Minnesota enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Minnesota 27 · Washington 24
- Pregame OV Line
- Washington -13
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Washington -12
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Minnesota by 3
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineWashington -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Washington -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusWashington -10Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Washington -10Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Minnesota 15.6%Washington 84.4%
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Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Washington -12
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