Eastern Illinois at Minnesota

Week 1 · Sep 3Huntington Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
Eastern IllinoisFCS
@
Minnesota1–1+5.8 vs. avg · #46

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineMinnesota -44Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusMinnesota -43.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineMinnesota -44Factor Adjustments≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineMinnesota -44Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Eastern IllinoisExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineMinnesota -44Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward Eastern IllinoisOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Minnesota -42Opening Market ConsensusMinnesota -43.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward MinnesotaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward MinnesotaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Minnesota -44Current Market ConsensusMinnesota -43.5Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward Eastern IllinoisExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty< 0.5 pts toward Eastern IllinoisAt open ~2 pts toward Eastern IllinoisIn-week ~2 pts toward Minnesota

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

< 0.5 pts toward Eastern IllinoisAt open ~2 pts toward Eastern IllinoisIn-week ~2 pts toward Minnesota
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Minnesota's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 89%. Historically, the market shaded about 0.0 points toward Eastern Illinois, but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Eastern Illinois 7 · Minnesota 59
Pregame OV Line
Minnesota -44
Final recorded market
Minnesota -43.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Minnesota -44
Actual margin
Minnesota by 52

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Eastern Illinois 0.1%Minnesota 99.9%

Compare Teams

Eastern IllinoisVSMinnesota

Model View

Overall Rating—+5.8 · #46
Offense Rating—+2.5
Defense Rating—+3.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.10
Offense Success Rate—39.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.15
Defense Success Rate Allowed—42.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—6.0
Playoff Odds—0.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank—24th