Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Indiana enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyWestern Kentucky at Indiana
Week 3 · Sep 19Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Bloomington, IN
Matchup View
Opening Line
Indiana -43Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -43Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusIndiana -44.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Indiana -44.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward IndianaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Indiana enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Indiana is favored by 44.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-total favorite Inconclusive
Indiana is favored in a game with a consensus total of 60.2.
Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Indiana begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Indiana ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Indiana faces materially stronger Northwestern in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Indiana is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Northwestern.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Western Kentucky enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Western Kentucky enters after losing its previous lined game by 50 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Western Kentucky enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Western Kentucky is a 44.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Western Kentucky lost the most recent meeting with Indiana.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineIndiana -43Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Indiana -43Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIndiana -44.5Based on 2 books
Indiana -44.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Western Kentucky <0.01%Indiana >99.9%
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Market consensus · Indiana -44.5
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