Offense#83
-1.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.35 #2 FBSSuccess rate51.6% #2 FBS
American Athletic · #88 of 138
North Texas
Implied Strength-6.2vs. FBS average · ±3.4
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility79%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule80thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Texas StateWeek 3 · OV Line UNT +8.5 · 26% win chance →Toughest remaining test#64 UTSAWeek 11 · 22% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 3.0 rating points.
Defense#96
-4.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.16 #74 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.0% #77 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How North Texas's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (6.7 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 78.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.7%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.7% total
Auto-bid0.6%
At-large0.1%
Outside field99.3%
Conference title4.3%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
3% of prior-year PPA returns, placing North Texas in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production2.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class25thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production95thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.7Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered
North Texas at Indiana · Bloomington, IN · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
North Texas through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS75%9–3 against consensus
Average line gap2.6 pts75% inside 3 points · 9 of 12
Factor coverage42%5 of 12 games
Factor signals40% aligned2 of 5 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in North Texas games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.6 pts toward North Texas | 33%1 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.8 pts toward North Texas | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | at TulaneAway | North Texas -0.5 | North Texas -1.5 | 0.9 pts toward North Texas | None identified | 0.9 pts toward North Texas | L 21–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W14 | vs. TempleHome | North Texas -20 | North Texas -20.5 | 0.7 pts toward North Texas | None identified | 0.7 pts toward North Texas | W 52–25 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at RiceAway | North Texas -19 | North Texas -18.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward North Texas | W 56–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W12 | at UABAway | North Texas -18 | North Texas -17.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward North Texas | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 53–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. NavyHome | North Texas -8 | North Texas -6.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 31–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at CharlotteAway | North Texas -23 | North Texas -25.5 | 2.3 pts toward North Texas | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 5.3 pts toward North Texas | W 54–20 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. UTSAHome | North Texas -6.5 | North Texas -4 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.3 pts toward opponents | W 55–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. South FloridaHome | North Texas -3 | North Texas -2.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward North Texas | 1.5 pts toward opponents | L 36–63 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. South AlabamaHome | North Texas -14.5 | North Texas -13 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | W 36–22 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Washington StateHome | North Texas -11.5 | North Texas -6.5 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.1 pts toward opponents | W 59–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at Western MichiganAway | North Texas -20 | North Texas -12.5 | 7.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.7 pts toward opponents | W 33–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. LamarHome | North Texas -21 | North Texas -27.5 | 6.6 pts toward North Texas | 0.8 pts toward North Texas | 5.8 pts toward North Texas | W 51–0 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.