Houston Christian at North Texas

Week 4 · Sep 26DATCU Stadium · Denton, TX
Houston ChristianFCS
@
North Texas6–2+2.4 vs. avg · #59

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNorth Texas -34Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNorth Texas -38.57-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 7:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNorth Texas -34Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Houston ChristianOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNorth Texas -32.5Unexplained Gap~6 pts toward North TexasExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNorth Texas -34Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Houston ChristianOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)North Texas -32.5Opening Market ConsensusNorth Texas -37.5Unexplained at open~5 pts toward North TexasSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)North Texas -32.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNorth Texas -38.5Unexplained gap~6 pts toward North TexasExplore similar gaps Houston Christian has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Houston Christian

Houston Christian has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Houston Christian

Houston Christian has 6.7 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward Houston Christian; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Houston Christian 14 · North Texas 63
Pregame OV Line
North Texas -34
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
North Texas -38.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
North Texas -32.5
Actual margin
North Texas by 49

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Houston Christian 0.6%North Texas 99.4%

Compare Teams

Houston ChristianVSNorth Texas

Model View

Overall Rating—+2.4 · #59
Offense Rating—+2.7
Defense Rating—-0.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.35
Offense Success Rate—51.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.16
Defense Success Rate Allowed—42.0%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—5.7
Playoff Odds—2.7%
Strength of Schedule Rank—82nd