Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNorth Texas at Texas State
Week 3 · Sep 19Bobcat Stadium (TX) · San Marcos, TX
Matchup View
Opening Line
Texas State -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas State -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusTexas State -32-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Texas State -32-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~5.5 pts toward North TexasExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Texas State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Texas State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-total favorite Inconclusive
Texas State is favored in a game with a consensus total of 63.2.
Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Texas State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
North Texas enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
North Texas enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
North Texas was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
North Texas ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineTexas State -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Texas State -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTexas State -3Based on 2 books
Texas State -3Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
North Texas 25.7%Texas State 74.3%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Texas State -3
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