Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Tulsa enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNorth Texas at Tulsa
Week 5 · Oct 1Chapman Stadium · Tulsa, OK
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Tulsa -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Tulsa -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Final Recorded Market Line
North Texas -22-book consensus · CFBD fallback
North Texas -22-book consensus · CFBD fallbackWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward North TexasExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Tulsa enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Tulsa is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Tulsa lost the most recent meeting with North Texas.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Tulsa lost the most recent meeting with North Texas by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
North Texas enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
North Texas enters after losing its previous lined game by 14 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
North Texas is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
North Texas is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
North Texas ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?North Texas 45 · Tulsa 44
- Pregame OV Line
- Tulsa -0.5
- Final Recorded Market Line
- North Texas -2
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- North Texas by 1
Final recorded CFBD line; observation time unavailable. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineTulsa -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Tulsa -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTulsa -2Earliest observed 2-book consensus
Tulsa -2Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
North Texas 48.6%Tulsa 51.4%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · North Texas -2
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