North Texas at Navy

Week 8 · Oct 24Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · Annapolis, MD

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNorth Texas -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNorth Texas -311-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNorth Texas -1Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward North TexasOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNorth Texas -3Unexplained GapNone at displayed precisionOnVarsity Opening LineNorth Texas -1Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward North TexasOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)North Texas -3Opening Market ConsensusNorth Texas -2Unexplained at open~1 pt toward NavySince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)North Texas -3Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNorth Texas -3Unexplained gapNone at displayed precisionNorth Texas has extra rest~2 pts toward North Texas

North Texas has extra rest

~2 pts toward North Texas

North Texas has 7.2 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward North Texas; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Navy enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Navy enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

Navy is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Navy lost the most recent meeting with North Texas.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Navy lost the most recent meeting with North Texas by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Navy faces materially stronger Notre Dame in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

North Texas enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

North Texas enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

North Texas is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-total favorite Inconclusive

North Texas is favored in a game with a consensus total of 63.8.

Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

North Texas ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?North Texas 49 · Navy 39
Pregame OV Line
North Texas -1
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
North Texas -3
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
North Texas -3
Actual margin
North Texas by 10

Observed 1h 17m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
North Texas 53.6%Navy 46.4%

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Compare Teams

North TexasVSNavy

Model View

Overall Rating+2.4 · #59-3.6 · #81
Offense Rating+2.7+0.5
Defense Rating-0.3-4.2

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.350.30
Offense Success Rate51.6%49.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.160.21
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.0%40.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.78.0
Playoff Odds2.7%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank82nd79th