Ohio at Nebraska

Week 1 · Sep 5Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · Lincoln, NE
Ohio1–1-11.5 vs. avg · #110
@
Nebraska2–0+10.8 vs. avg · #30

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineNebraska -22.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusNebraska -242-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNebraska -22.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward OhioOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNebraska -21.5Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward NebraskaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNebraska -22.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward OhioOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Nebraska -21Opening Market ConsensusNebraska -23.5Unexplained at open~2.5 pts toward NebraskaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward NebraskaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Nebraska -21.5Current Market ConsensusNebraska -24Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward NebraskaExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1 pt toward OhioAt open ~1.5 pts toward OhioIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Nebraska

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1 pt toward OhioAt open ~1.5 pts toward OhioIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Nebraska
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Nebraska's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 33%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.2 points toward Ohio (average-estimate range 0.8–2.2), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Nebraska is favored by 23.8 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Ohio is a 23.8-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

First Full Season as Head Coach No separate adjustment

John Hauser coached Ohio's final 1 game last season as interim before beginning his first full season as head coach. Only 3 historical cases followed that path: 67% shaded toward the returning coach, averaging 0.3 points (median 1.3)—too few for a separate estimate. The broader 38-game study originally suggested a retained-coach difference, but the 24-game market-state revalidation centered near zero. We therefore identify the transition but apply no Factor points.

Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Ohio 21 · Nebraska 49
Pregame OV Line
Nebraska -22.5
Final recorded market
Nebraska -24
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Nebraska -21.5
Actual margin
Nebraska by 28

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Ohio 5.2%Nebraska 94.8%

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Compare Teams

OhioVSNebraska

Model View

Overall Rating-11.5 · #110+10.8 · #30
Offense Rating-4.9+6.4
Defense Rating-6.6+4.4

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.210.18
Offense Success Rate44.9%46.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.120.19
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.2%42.6%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.76.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%2.9%
Strength of Schedule Rank132nd25th