Offense#120
-7.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.14 #88 FBSSuccess rate40.6% #91 FBS
Mid-American · #117 of 138
Central Michigan
Implied Strength-13.2vs. FBS average · ±4.0
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility61%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule118thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. WyomingWeek 3 · OV Line CMU 0 · 51% win chance →Toughest remaining test#7 MiamiWeek 4 · <0.01% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 2.3 rating points.
Defense#104
-5.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.08 #33 FBSSuccess rate allowed40.3% #52 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Central Michigan's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (6.0 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 61.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title7.2%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Central Michigan. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production54.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class133rdof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production119thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.3Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered
Central Michigan at New Mexico · Albuquerque, NM · University Stadium (NM)
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Central Michigan through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS64%7–4 against consensus
Average line gap3.5 pts64% inside 3 points · 7 of 11
Factor coverage45%5 of 11 games
Factor signals100% aligned4 of 4 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample11 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Central Michigan games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 3.6 pts toward Central Michigan | 100%3 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.7 pts toward Central Michigan | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 11 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. ToledoHome | Central Michigan +12 | Central Michigan +11.5 | 0.6 pts toward Central Michigan | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Central Michigan | L 3–21 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Kent StateAway | Central Michigan -9.5 | Central Michigan -7.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 28–16 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at Western MichiganAway | Central Michigan +6 | Central Michigan +5.5 | 0.7 pts toward Central Michigan | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Central Michigan | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. MassachusettsHome | Central Michigan -18.5 | Central Michigan -16.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 38–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at Bowling GreenAway | Central Michigan +5.5 | Central Michigan +3 | 2.6 pts toward Central Michigan | 1.7 pts toward Central Michigan | 0.9 pts toward Central Michigan | W 27–6 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | at AkronAway | Central Michigan -1.5 | Central Michigan -7 | 5.5 pts toward Central Michigan | None identified | 5.5 pts toward Central Michigan | L 22–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Eastern MichiganHome | Central Michigan -9 | Central Michigan -3 | 5.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.8 pts toward opponents | W 24–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. WagnerHome | Central Michigan -26.5 | Central Michigan -29.5 | 3.2 pts toward Central Michigan | 1.6 pts toward Central Michigan | 1.5 pts toward Central Michigan | W 49–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | at MichiganAway | Central Michigan +28.5 | Central Michigan +27.5 | 0.9 pts toward Central Michigan | 3.7 pts toward Central Michigan | 2.8 pts toward opponents | L 3–63 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | at PittsburghAway | Central Michigan +37.5 | Central Michigan +21.5 | 16.0 pts toward Central Michigan | 5.5 pts toward Central Michigan | 10.5 pts toward Central Michigan | L 17–45 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at San José StateAway | Central Michigan +14.5 | Central Michigan +14.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | No net direction | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 16–14 | W | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 11 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.