Central Michigan at New Mexico

Week 1 · Sep 5University Stadium (NM) · Albuquerque, NM
Central Michigan3–5-15.3 vs. avg · #121
@
New Mexico7–1+3.8 vs. avg · #55

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNew Mexico -13.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNew Mexico -1110-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 9:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNew Mexico -13.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Central MichiganOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNew Mexico -12.5Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Central MichiganExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNew Mexico -13.5Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward Central MichiganOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)New Mexico -13Opening Market ConsensusNew Mexico -12.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward Central MichiganSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward Central MichiganOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)New Mexico -12.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNew Mexico -11Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward Central MichiganExplore similar gaps Inexperienced starting QB~1 pt toward Central MichiganAt open ~0.5 pts toward Central MichiganIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Central Michigan

Inexperienced starting QB

~1 pt toward Central MichiganAt open ~0.5 pts toward Central MichiganIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Central Michigan
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Luke Moga is expected to start at quarterback for New Mexico with only 5 career passing attempts. In 17 comparable FBS-FBS openers with a named starter below 50 career attempts, markets averaged about 0.9 points away from that team after ordinary game-flow context was accounted for.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Central Michigan 7 · New Mexico 38
Pregame OV Line
New Mexico -13.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
New Mexico -11
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
New Mexico -12.5
Actual margin
New Mexico by 31

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Central Michigan 16.8%New Mexico 83.2%

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Compare Teams

Central MichiganVSNew Mexico

Model View

Overall Rating-15.3 · #121+3.8 · #55
Offense Rating-8.8+1.5
Defense Rating-6.5+2.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.140.16
Offense Success Rate40.6%40.8%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.080.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed40.3%39.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.38.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%6.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank120th108th