Offense#11
+10.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.22 #32 FBSSuccess rate46.8% #20 FBS
ACC · #7 of 138
Miami
Implied Strength+23.1vs. FBS average · ±4.0
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds81%make the 12-team field
Conference Title67%win ACC
Strength of Schedule60thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Wake ForestWeek 3 · OV Line MIA -17 · 91% win chance →Toughest remaining test#5 Notre DameWeek 10 · 32% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 2.6 rating points.
Defense#7
+12.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.03 #12 FBSSuccess rate allowed35.9% #13 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Miami's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 11–1 (10.6 expected wins), and the playoff is more likely than not at 81%. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 11 winsCentral 80% 9–12 winsBowl eligible >99.9%Undefeated 18.2%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
81.5%Make the 12-team field
More likely than not across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached81.5% total
Auto-bid66.8%
At-large14.7%
Outside field18.5%
Conference title66.8%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Miami ranks 4th of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production36.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class96thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production4thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total10.7Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Miami through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS44%18–23 against consensus
Average line gap2.6 pts61% inside 3 points · 25 of 41
Factor coverage44%18 of 41 games
Factor signals65% aligned13 of 20 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample41 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Miami games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 10 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | 70%7 of 10 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 9 | 0.1 pts toward Miami | 67%6 of 9 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward Miami | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 41 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at PittsburghAway | Miami -8 | Miami -6.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 38–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Virginia TechAway | Miami -19 | Miami -17.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 34–17 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. NC StateHome | Miami -19.5 | Miami -16.5 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | W 41–7 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | at SMUAway | Miami -5.5 | Miami -8.5 | 3.2 pts toward Miami | None identified | 3.2 pts toward Miami | L 20–26 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. StanfordHome | Miami -31 | Miami -28.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Miami | W 42–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. LouisvilleHome | Miami -13.5 | Miami -10.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | L 21–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at Florida StateAway | Miami 0 | Miami -3.5 | 3.3 pts toward Miami | 1.5 pts toward Miami | 1.8 pts toward Miami | W 28–22 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. FloridaHome | Miami -5 | Miami -8.5 | 3.6 pts toward Miami | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Miami | W 26–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. South FloridaHome | Miami -12.5 | Miami -17.5 | 4.9 pts toward Miami | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Miami | W 49–12 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Bethune-CookmanHome | Miami -59 | Miami -54.5 | 4.6 pts toward opponents | 7.5 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward Miami | W 45–3 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Notre DameHome | Miami +1.5 | Miami +2.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward Miami | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2024 · W14 | at SyracuseAway | Miami -15.5 | Miami -12 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.5 pts toward opponents | L 38–42 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. Wake ForestHome | Miami -27.5 | Miami -23.5 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward opponents | W 42–14 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W11 | at Georgia TechAway | Miami -13.5 | Miami -9.5 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 3.1 pts toward opponents | L 23–28 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. DukeHome | Miami -24 | Miami -21 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 53–31 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. Florida StateHome | Miami -22 | Miami -22.5 | 0.6 pts toward Miami | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward Miami | W 36–14 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W8 | at LouisvilleAway | Miami -4.5 | Miami -4.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Miami | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 52–45 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | at CaliforniaAway | Miami -16.5 | Miami -10 | 6.6 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 5.7 pts toward opponents | W 39–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. Virginia TechHome | Miami -21.5 | Miami -17.5 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward opponents | W 38–34 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Florida A&MHome | Miami -42 | Miami -46.5 | 4.7 pts toward Miami | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 5.1 pts toward Miami | W 56–9 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W1 | at FloridaAway | Miami -3 | Miami -2.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 41–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | at Boston CollegeAway | Miami -11 | Miami -10 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 45–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. LouisvilleHome | Miami -1 | Miami -1 | 0.1 pts toward Miami | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Miami | L 31–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at Florida StateAway | Miami +15 | Miami +14.5 | 0.7 pts toward Miami | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Miami | L 20–27 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at NC StateAway | Miami -4 | Miami -6 | 1.8 pts toward Miami | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Miami | L 6–20 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. VirginiaHome | Miami -20 | Miami -18.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 29–26 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. ClemsonHome | Miami +1 | Miami +6 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 28–20 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | at North CarolinaAway | Miami +2 | Miami +2.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 31–41 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. Georgia TechHome | Miami -21.5 | Miami -19 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 20–23 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. Bethune-CookmanHome | Miami -58.5 | Miami -54 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | 7.4 pts toward opponents | 3.2 pts toward Miami | W 48–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. Texas A&MHome | Miami +4 | Miami +3 | 1.2 pts toward Miami | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Miami | W 48–33 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. PittsburghHome | Miami +4.5 | Miami +4.5 | 0.5 pts toward Miami | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Miami | L 16–42 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at ClemsonAway | Miami +16 | Miami +19 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | L 10–40 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at Georgia TechAway | Miami -7.5 | Miami +2 | 9.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 9.7 pts toward opponents | W 35–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. Florida StateHome | Miami +4.5 | Miami +6.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | L 3–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | at VirginiaAway | Miami -5 | Miami -3 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 14–12 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. DukeHome | Miami -11.5 | Miami -10 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 21–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at Virginia TechAway | Miami -8.5 | Miami -9 | 0.3 pts toward Miami | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Miami | W 20–14 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. North CarolinaHome | Miami -1.5 | Miami -4 | 2.4 pts toward Miami | 1.1 pts toward Miami | 1.3 pts toward Miami | L 24–27 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W3 | at Texas A&MAway | Miami +3 | Miami +6.5 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.6 pts toward opponents | L 9–17 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Bethune-CookmanHome | Miami -47 | Miami -49.5 | 2.4 pts toward Miami | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward Miami | W 70–13 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 41 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.