Close-win regression Developing estimate
Miami enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDuke at Miami
Week 11 · Nov 14Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
Matchup View
Opening Line
Miami -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Miami -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Single-Book LineMiami -21Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM EST
Miami -21Single-book line · CFBD fallback · observed Nov 2, 12:32 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward MiamiExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate
Miami has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Miami is favored by 21.0 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Miami begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Miami ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Duke enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Duke enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Duke is a 21.0-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Duke ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Duke lost the most recent meeting with Miami.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Duke lost the most recent meeting with Miami by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Duke is the underdog in a matchup played at least 6 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineMiami -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Miami -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMiami -21Single-book line · CFBD fallback
Miami -21Single-book line · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Duke 6.1%Miami 93.9%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Miami -21
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