Close-win regression Developing estimate
Wake Forest enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMiami at Wake Forest
Week 3 · Sep 18Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Winston-Salem, NC
Matchup View
Opening Line
Miami -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Miami -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusMiami -20.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Miami -20.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward MiamiExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Wake Forest is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Wake Forest is a 20.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Wake Forest lost the most recent meeting with Miami.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Wake Forest lost the most recent meeting with Miami by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Miami enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Miami enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Miami is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Miami is favored by 20.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Miami begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Miami ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Miami is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineMiami -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Miami -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMiami -20.5Based on 2 books
Miami -20.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Miami 91.2%Wake Forest 8.8%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Miami -20.5
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