Offense#97
-4.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.06 #119 FBSSuccess rate36.5% #123 FBS
ACC · #85 of 138
Stanford
Implied Strength-5.6vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility8%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule35thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat DukeWeek 3 · OV Line STAN +12 · 17% win chance →Toughest remaining test#5 Notre DameWeek 6 · <0.01% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 2.5 rating points.
Defense#77
-1.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.18 #85 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.5% #84 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Stanford's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 4–8 (3.6 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 3 winsCentral 80% 2–5 winsBowl eligible 7.6%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production21.3%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class130thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production54thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.7Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Stanford through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS36%16–28–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.1 pts73% inside 3 points · 33 of 45
Factor coverage44%20 of 45 games
Factor signals73% aligned16 of 22 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Stanford games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 15 | 3.1 pts toward Stanford | 80%12 of 15 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.4 pts toward Stanford | 57%4 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Notre DameHome | Stanford +33.5 | Stanford +32.5 | 1.1 pts toward Stanford | 4.7 pts toward Stanford | 3.7 pts toward opponents | L 20–49 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Stanford +2.5 | Stanford +4.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 31–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at North CarolinaAway | Stanford +7.5 | Stanford +8.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 15–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. PittsburghHome | Stanford +13.5 | Stanford +13.5 | 0.1 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Stanford | L 20–35 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at MiamiAway | Stanford +31 | Stanford +28.5 | 2.5 pts toward Stanford | 4.2 pts toward Stanford | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 7–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Florida StateHome | Stanford +20 | Stanford +17.5 | 2.3 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 2.3 pts toward Stanford | W 20–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at SMUAway | Stanford +23 | Stanford +19.5 | 3.5 pts toward Stanford | 4.6 pts toward Stanford | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 10–34 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. San José StateHome | Stanford -4.5 | Stanford -3 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 30–29 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at VirginiaAway | Stanford +14 | Stanford +16.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 20–48 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Boston CollegeHome | Stanford +11 | Stanford +14 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 30–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at BYUAway | Stanford +41.5 | Stanford +20.5 | 20.8 pts toward Stanford | 8.0 pts toward Stanford | 12.8 pts toward Stanford | L 3–27 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W1 | at Hawai'iAway | Stanford +1 | Stanford +1.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | No net direction | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 20–23 | L | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2024 · W13 | at CaliforniaAway | Stanford +17 | Stanford +15 | 2.2 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Stanford | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. LouisvilleHome | Stanford +19.5 | Stanford +21 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 38–35 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | at NC StateAway | Stanford +10 | Stanford +9.5 | 0.4 pts toward Stanford | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward Stanford | L 28–59 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. Wake ForestHome | Stanford -1 | Stanford +3 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.2 pts toward opponents | L 24–27 | P | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | at Notre DameAway | Stanford +25.5 | Stanford +22.5 | 2.9 pts toward Stanford | 1.5 pts toward Stanford | 1.5 pts toward Stanford | L 7–49 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. Virginia TechHome | Stanford +7 | Stanford +9.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.3 pts toward opponents | L 7–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | at ClemsonAway | Stanford +23 | Stanford +24 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward Stanford | 3.3 pts toward opponents | L 14–40 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W4 | at SyracuseAway | Stanford +9.5 | Stanford +9.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 26–24 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Cal PolyHome | Stanford -36.5 | Stanford -33.5 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 0.2 pts toward Stanford | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 41–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. TCUHome | Stanford +9.5 | Stanford +8.5 | 0.8 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Stanford | L 27–34 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. Notre DameHome | Stanford +29.5 | Stanford +26 | 3.4 pts toward Stanford | 3.0 pts toward Stanford | 0.5 pts toward Stanford | L 23–56 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Stanford +9 | Stanford +6.5 | 2.7 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 2.7 pts toward Stanford | L 15–27 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at Oregon StateAway | Stanford +24.5 | Stanford +21.5 | 3.0 pts toward Stanford | 2.5 pts toward Stanford | 0.5 pts toward Stanford | L 17–62 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W10 | at Washington StateAway | Stanford +16 | Stanford +13.5 | 2.4 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Stanford | W 10–7 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. WashingtonHome | Stanford +30 | Stanford +27.5 | 2.7 pts toward Stanford | 3.1 pts toward Stanford | 0.4 pts toward opponents | L 33–42 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. UCLAHome | Stanford +19.5 | Stanford +17 | 2.6 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Stanford | L 7–42 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | at ColoradoAway | Stanford +11.5 | Stanford +13 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Stanford | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 46–43 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. OregonHome | Stanford +31 | Stanford +27 | 4.0 pts toward Stanford | 3.2 pts toward Stanford | 0.8 pts toward Stanford | L 6–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. ArizonaHome | Stanford +9.5 | Stanford +13 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.3 pts toward opponents | L 20–21 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. Sacramento StateHome | Stanford -4.5 | Stanford -7 | 2.7 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 2.7 pts toward Stanford | L 23–30 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | at USCAway | Stanford +34.5 | Stanford +28.5 | 6.1 pts toward Stanford | 3.7 pts toward Stanford | 2.3 pts toward Stanford | L 10–56 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. BYUHome | Stanford +8.5 | Stanford +6.5 | 1.9 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Stanford | L 26–35 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at CaliforniaAway | Stanford +5 | Stanford +5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 20–27 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at UtahAway | Stanford +21.5 | Stanford +24 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward Stanford | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 7–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. Washington StateHome | Stanford +4 | Stanford +3 | 1.0 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Stanford | L 14–52 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | at UCLAAway | Stanford +12 | Stanford +16.5 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.5 pts toward opponents | L 13–38 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Stanford -4 | Stanford -3 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward Stanford | W 15–14 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W7 | at Notre DameAway | Stanford +17.5 | Stanford +16.5 | 1.2 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Stanford | W 16–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. Oregon StateHome | Stanford +7.5 | Stanford +4.5 | 2.9 pts toward Stanford | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Stanford | L 27–28 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at OregonAway | Stanford +17 | Stanford +17.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 27–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at WashingtonAway | Stanford +18 | Stanford +14 | 4.0 pts toward Stanford | 1.7 pts toward Stanford | 2.3 pts toward Stanford | L 22–40 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. USCHome | Stanford +28.5 | Stanford +9.5 | 19.0 pts toward Stanford | 3.3 pts toward Stanford | 15.7 pts toward Stanford | L 28–41 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. ColgateHome | Stanford -32 | Stanford -40 | 8.2 pts toward Stanford | 1.6 pts toward Stanford | 6.6 pts toward Stanford | W 41–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.