Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Wake Forest was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStanford at Wake Forest
Week 5 · Oct 3Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Winston-Salem, NC
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Wake Forest -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Wake Forest -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusWake Forest -1510-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Wake Forest -1510-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Wake ForestExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
Wake Forest enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Stanford was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Stanford enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Stanford lost the most recent meeting with Wake Forest.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Stanford faces materially stronger Notre Dame in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Stanford 3 · Wake Forest 57
- Pregame OV Line
- Wake Forest -11.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Wake Forest -15
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Wake Forest by 54
Observed 3h 32m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineWake Forest -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Wake Forest -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusWake Forest -12Earliest observed 2-book consensus
Wake Forest -12Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Stanford 18.2%Wake Forest 81.8%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Wake Forest -15
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