Stanford at Duke

Week 3 · Sep 19Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham, NC
Stanford4–5-8.9 vs. avg · #98
@
Duke6–2+5.8 vs. avg · #46

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineDuke -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusDuke -1010-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 3:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineDuke -12Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward StanfordOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineDuke -10Unexplained GapNone at displayed precisionOnVarsity Opening LineDuke -12Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward StanfordOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Duke -10Opening Market ConsensusDuke -9.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward StanfordSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Duke -10Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusDuke -10Unexplained gapNone at displayed precisionStanford has extra rest~2 pts toward Stanford

Stanford has extra rest

~2 pts toward Stanford

Stanford has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Stanford; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

Duke was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Duke enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Duke ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Stanford enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Stanford enters after losing its previous lined game by 39 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Stanford 7 · Duke 35
Pregame OV Line
Duke -12
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Duke -10
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Duke -10
Actual margin
Duke by 28

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Stanford 17.4%Duke 82.6%

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Compare Teams

StanfordVSDuke

Model View

Overall Rating-8.9 · #98+5.8 · #46
Offense Rating-5.7+4.7
Defense Rating-3.2+1.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.060.25
Offense Success Rate36.5%45.8%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.180.22
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.5%43.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.75.8
Playoff Odds<0.01%1.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank38th62nd