NC State at Stanford

Week 8 · Oct 23Stanford Stadium · Stanford, CA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNC State -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNC State -7.511-book consensus · observed Oct 23, 12:43 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNC State -9Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward NC StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNC State -11Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward StanfordExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNC State -9Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward NC StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)NC State -11Opening Market ConsensusNC State -7.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward StanfordSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)NC State -11Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNC State -7.5Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward StanfordExplore similar gaps NC State has extra rest~2 pts toward NC State

NC State has extra rest

~2 pts toward NC State

NC State has 7.3 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward NC State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Stanford enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Stanford enters after losing its previous lined game by 51 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Stanford enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

Stanford is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Stanford lost the most recent meeting with NC State.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Stanford lost the most recent meeting with NC State by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Stanford faces materially stronger Louisville in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

NC State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

NC State enters after losing its previous lined game by 24 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

NC State is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

NC State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?NC State 28 · Stanford 31
Pregame OV Line
NC State -9
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
NC State -7.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
NC State -11
Actual margin
Stanford by 3

Observed 9h 46m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
NC State 75.3%Stanford 24.7%

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Compare Teams

NC StateVSStanford

Model View

Overall Rating+0.7 · #69-8.9 · #98
Offense Rating+2.5-5.7
Defense Rating-1.7-3.2

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.240.06
Offense Success Rate42.4%36.5%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.190.18
Defense Success Rate Allowed39.8%42.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.33.7
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank69th38th