Stanford at Louisville

Week 9 · Oct 31L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville, KY

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineLouisville -27Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLouisville -22.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineLouisville -27Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward LouisvilleOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineLouisville -28Unexplained Gap~5.5 pts toward StanfordExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineLouisville -27Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward LouisvilleOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Louisville -28Opening Market ConsensusLouisville -22.5Unexplained at open~5.5 pts toward StanfordSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Louisville -28Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLouisville -22.5Unexplained gap~5.5 pts toward StanfordExplore similar gaps Louisville has extra rest~1 pt toward Louisville

Louisville has extra rest

~1 pt toward Louisville

Louisville has 6.1 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 0.9 points toward Louisville; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Louisville enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Louisville is favored by 22.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-total favorite Inconclusive

Louisville is favored in a game with a consensus total of 60.5.

Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Louisville begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Louisville lost the most recent meeting with Stanford.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

Stanford was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Stanford enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Stanford is a 22.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Stanford 24 · Louisville 52
Pregame OV Line
Louisville -27
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Louisville -22.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Louisville -28
Actual margin
Louisville by 28

Observed 9h 40m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Stanford 2.0%Louisville 98.0%

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Compare Teams

StanfordVSLouisville

Model View

Overall Rating-8.9 · #98+13.2 · #29
Offense Rating-5.7+4.9
Defense Rating-3.2+8.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.060.15
Offense Success Rate36.5%45.1%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.180.06
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.5%36.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.78.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%5.3%
Strength of Schedule Rank38th49th