Offense#36
+4.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.15 #82 FBSSuccess rate45.1% #37 FBS
ACC · #28 of 138
Louisville
Implied Strength+11.5vs. FBS average · ±4.0
Record1–1through completed games
Playoff Odds14%make the 12-team field
Conference Title9%win ACC
Strength of Schedule52ndof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. SMUWeek 3 · OV Line LOU -2 · 56% win chance →Toughest remaining test#26 SMUWeek 3 · 56% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 3.4 rating points.
Defense#20
+7.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.06 #21 FBSSuccess rate allowed36.4% #16 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Louisville's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 8–4 (7.9 expected wins), with a 14% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 8 winsCentral 80% 6–10 winsBowl eligible 91.3%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
14.4%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached14.4% total
Auto-bid8.7%
At-large5.7%
Outside field85.6%
Conference title8.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Lincoln Kienholz enters with limited established experience
Lincoln Kienholz enters the season with only 36 career passing attempts. That uncertainty can matter more to an individual spread than to an aggregate season forecast.
17 comparable openers averaged about 0.9 points away from the low-experience quarterback's team. 1 upcoming matchup carries the Factor.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production34.8%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class14thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production50thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total8.2Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 6Suggested side did not cover
Neutral site · Nashville, TN · Nissan Stadium — Liberty Mutual Music City Kickoff
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Louisville through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS44%20–25 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts62% inside 3 points · 28 of 45
Factor coverage31%14 of 45 games
Factor signals69% aligned11 of 16 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Louisville games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 9 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 56%5 of 9 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 80%4 of 5 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 2 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. KentuckyHome | Louisville -7.5 | Louisville +1.5 | 8.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.8 pts toward opponents | W 41–0 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at SMUAway | Louisville +2 | Louisville +4 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 6–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. ClemsonHome | Louisville -4 | Louisville -1.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 19–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Louisville -20 | Louisville -18.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 26–29 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at Virginia TechAway | Louisville -10.5 | Louisville -10.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 28–16 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Boston CollegeHome | Louisville -19.5 | Louisville -25.5 | 6.0 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 6.0 pts toward Louisville | W 38–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at MiamiAway | Louisville +13.5 | Louisville +10.5 | 3.0 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Louisville | W 24–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. VirginiaHome | Louisville -10 | Louisville -6.5 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.6 pts toward opponents | L 27–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at PittsburghAway | Louisville -2 | Louisville -3 | 1.0 pts toward Louisville | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 2.0 pts toward Louisville | W 34–27 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Bowling GreenHome | Louisville -28 | Louisville -26.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 0.8 pts toward Louisville | W 40–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. James MadisonHome | Louisville -12.5 | Louisville -15.5 | 2.5 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Louisville | W 28–14 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Eastern KentuckyHome | Louisville -40 | Louisville -38 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Louisville | 3.8 pts toward opponents | W 51–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W14 | at KentuckyAway | Louisville -0.5 | Louisville -4 | 3.6 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Louisville | W 41–14 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. PittsburghHome | Louisville -11.5 | Louisville -7.5 | 4.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.1 pts toward opponents | W 37–9 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at StanfordAway | Louisville -19.5 | Louisville -21 | 1.3 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Louisville | L 35–38 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | at ClemsonAway | Louisville +9 | Louisville +11 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 33–21 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W9 | at Boston CollegeAway | Louisville -8.5 | Louisville -7 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 31–27 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. MiamiHome | Louisville +4.5 | Louisville +4.5 | 0.2 pts toward Louisville | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 1.9 pts toward Louisville | L 45–52 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W7 | at VirginiaAway | Louisville -10.5 | Louisville -7 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 24–20 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | at Notre DameAway | Louisville -0.5 | Louisville +6.5 | 7.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.2 pts toward opponents | L 24–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. Georgia TechHome | Louisville -25 | Louisville -8.5 | 16.6 pts toward opponents | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 15.2 pts toward opponents | W 31–19 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Austin PeayHome | Louisville -30 | Louisville -38.5 | 8.6 pts toward Louisville | 2.3 pts toward Louisville | 6.3 pts toward Louisville | W 62–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W14 | vs. Florida StateNeutral | Louisville +10 | Louisville -1.5 | 11.7 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 11.7 pts toward Louisville | L 6–16 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. KentuckyHome | Louisville -4 | Louisville -7.5 | 3.3 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Louisville | L 31–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at MiamiAway | Louisville +1 | Louisville +1 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 38–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. VirginiaHome | Louisville -20 | Louisville -20 | 0.1 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Louisville | W 31–24 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. Virginia TechHome | Louisville -12.5 | Louisville -10 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | W 34–3 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. DukeHome | Louisville -1.5 | Louisville -5 | 3.3 pts toward Louisville | 1.1 pts toward Louisville | 2.2 pts toward Louisville | W 23–0 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | at PittsburghAway | Louisville -8 | Louisville -7 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | No net direction | L 21–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. Notre DameHome | Louisville +9.5 | Louisville +6 | 3.6 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Louisville | W 33–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at NC StateAway | Louisville -4 | Louisville -3.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 13–10 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. Boston CollegeHome | Louisville -17 | Louisville -14 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 56–28 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. IndianaNeutral | Louisville -16.5 | Louisville -10 | 6.3 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 5.2 pts toward opponents | W 21–14 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. Murray StateHome | Louisville -45 | Louisville -43.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward Louisville | W 56–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Georgia TechNeutral | Louisville -10.5 | Louisville -7.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 39–34 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W13 | at KentuckyAway | Louisville 0 | Louisville +3.5 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.3 pts toward opponents | L 13–26 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. NC StateHome | Louisville -4.5 | Louisville -4 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 25–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at ClemsonAway | Louisville +8.5 | Louisville +7 | 1.4 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Louisville | L 16–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. Wake ForestHome | Louisville +2.5 | Louisville +3 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 48–21 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. PittsburghHome | Louisville -0.5 | Louisville -1.5 | 0.9 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Louisville | W 24–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at VirginiaAway | Louisville -8.5 | Louisville +1.5 | 10.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 10.0 pts toward opponents | W 34–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at Boston CollegeAway | Louisville -11.5 | Louisville -13.5 | 2.2 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Louisville | L 33–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. Florida StateHome | Louisville +1.5 | Louisville +2.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward Louisville | L 31–35 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W2 | at UCFAway | Louisville +12.5 | Louisville +5.5 | 7.0 pts toward Louisville | None identified | 7.0 pts toward Louisville | W 20–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | at SyracuseAway | Louisville -6 | Louisville -6 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 7–31 | L | None identified |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.