Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Louisville begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyWake Forest at Louisville
Week 4 · Sep 26L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville, KY
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Louisville -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Louisville -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusLouisville -1111-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 11:45 AM EDT
Louisville -1111-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 11:45 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Wake Forest enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Wake Forest lost the most recent meeting with Louisville.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Wake Forest lost the most recent meeting with Louisville by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Wake Forest is the underdog in a matchup played at least 5 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Wake Forest 30 · Louisville 27
- Pregame OV Line
- Louisville -11
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Louisville -11
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Wake Forest by 3
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineLouisville -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Louisville -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusLouisville -12.5Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Louisville -12.5Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Wake Forest 19.2%Louisville 80.8%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Louisville -11
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