Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Louisville enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySMU at Louisville
Week 3 · Sep 19L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville, KY
Matchup View
Opening Line
Louisville -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Louisville -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusLouisville -1.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Louisville -1.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward SMUExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Louisville enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Louisville is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Louisville begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Louisville lost the most recent meeting with SMU.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Louisville lost the most recent meeting with SMU by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
SMU enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
SMU begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
SMU ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
SMU is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineLouisville -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Louisville -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusLouisville -1.5Based on 2 books
Louisville -1.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
SMU 44.2%Louisville 55.8%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Louisville -1.5
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