Hawai'i at Stanford

Week 0 · Aug 29Stanford Stadium · Stanford, CA
Hawai'i2–6-10.8 vs. avg · #103
@
Stanford4–5-8.9 vs. avg · #98

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineStanford -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusStanford -4.511-book consensus · observed Aug 29, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineStanford -6.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Hawai'iOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineStanford -5.5Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Hawai'iExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineStanford -6.5Factor adjustment (Open)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Stanford -6.5Opening Market ConsensusStanford -3Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward Hawai'iSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward Hawai'iOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Stanford -5.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusStanford -4.5Unexplained gap~1 pt toward Hawai'iExplore similar gaps Season Opener with a New Head Coach~1 pt toward Hawai'i

Season Opener with a New Head Coach

~1 pt toward Hawai'i
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Tavita Pritchard begins his first Stanford season; Hawai'i returns Timmy Chang. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 1.0 point toward the returning coach (median 1.3; 66% shaded that way).

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Hawai'i 27 · Stanford 37
Pregame OV Line
Stanford -6.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Stanford -4.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Stanford -5.5
Actual margin
Stanford by 10

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Hawai'i 32.1%Stanford 67.9%

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Compare Teams

Hawai'iVSStanford

Model View

Overall Rating-10.8 · #103-8.9 · #98
Offense Rating-4.7-5.7
Defense Rating-6.1-3.2

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.06
Offense Success Rate41.0%36.5%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.160.18
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.9%42.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.03.7
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank126th38th