Offense#118
-7.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.10 #104 FBSSuccess rate39.4% #109 FBS
Mid-American · #103 of 138
Miami (OH)
Implied Strength-10.1vs. FBS average · ±3.9
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility84%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule131stof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat CincinnatiWeek 3 · OV Line M-OH +14.5 · 12% win chance →Toughest remaining test#59 CincinnatiWeek 3 · 12% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 4.7 rating points.
Defense#87
-2.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.09 #34 FBSSuccess rate allowed39.3% #44 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Miami (OH)'s 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (7.1 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 83.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title15.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
David McComb enters with limited established experience
David McComb enters the season with no career passing attempts. That uncertainty can matter more to an individual spread than to an aggregate season forecast.
17 comparable openers averaged about 0.9 points away from the low-experience quarterback's team. 1 upcoming matchup carries the Factor.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
14% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Miami (OH) in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production13.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class101stof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production71stof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.3Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Miami (OH) through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS58%7–5 against consensus
Average line gap2.5 pts75% inside 3 points · 9 of 12
Factor coverage25%3 of 12 games
Factor signals100% aligned3 of 3 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Miami (OH) games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 1 | 2.7 pts toward Miami (OH) | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | vs. Western MichiganNeutral | Miami (OH) 0 | Miami (OH) +2.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 13–23 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Ball StateHome | Miami (OH) -20 | Miami (OH) -16.5 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.4 pts toward opponents | W 45–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. ToledoHome | Miami (OH) +4.5 | Miami (OH) +5.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 3–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at OhioAway | Miami (OH) +7 | Miami (OH) +2.5 | 4.5 pts toward Miami (OH) | None identified | 4.5 pts toward Miami (OH) | L 20–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Western MichiganHome | Miami (OH) -5 | Miami (OH) -2.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 26–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Eastern MichiganHome | Miami (OH) -14 | Miami (OH) -12.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 44–30 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at AkronAway | Miami (OH) -10 | Miami (OH) -11.5 | 1.6 pts toward Miami (OH) | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Miami (OH) | W 20–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at Northern IllinoisAway | Miami (OH) -2.5 | Miami (OH) -4.5 | 2.0 pts toward Miami (OH) | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Miami (OH) | W 25–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. LindenwoodHome | Miami (OH) -19.5 | Miami (OH) -22.5 | 3.0 pts toward Miami (OH) | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Miami (OH) | W 38–0 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. UNLVHome | Miami (OH) +2.5 | Miami (OH) +1.5 | 0.8 pts toward Miami (OH) | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Miami (OH) | L 38–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at RutgersAway | Miami (OH) +21.5 | Miami (OH) +15.5 | 6.0 pts toward Miami (OH) | 2.7 pts toward Miami (OH) | 3.3 pts toward Miami (OH) | L 17–45 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at WisconsinAway | Miami (OH) +20 | Miami (OH) +18 | 1.8 pts toward Miami (OH) | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Miami (OH) | L 0–17 | W | None identified |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.