Close-win regression Developing estimate
Miami (OH) enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBowling Green at Miami (OH)
Week 5 · Oct 3Yager Stadium · Oxford, OH
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Miami (OH) -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Miami (OH) -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusMiami (OH) -1210-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Miami (OH) -1210-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Bowling Green lost the most recent meeting with Miami (OH).
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Bowling Green lost the most recent meeting with Miami (OH) by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Bowling Green is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Bowling Green 24 · Miami (OH) 20
- Pregame OV Line
- Miami (OH) -12
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Miami (OH) -12
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Bowling Green by 4
Observed 7h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMiami (OH) -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Miami (OH) -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMiami (OH) -13Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Miami (OH) -13Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Bowling Green 17.2%Miami (OH) 82.8%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Miami (OH) -12
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