Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Cincinnati is favored by 14.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMiami (OH) at Cincinnati
Week 3 · Sep 19TQL Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Cincinnati -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Cincinnati -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusCincinnati -14.59-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 3:15 PM EDT
Cincinnati -14.59-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 3:15 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Cincinnati faces materially stronger Kansas State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Cincinnati is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Kansas State.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Miami (OH) enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Miami (OH) enters after losing its previous lined game by 45 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Miami (OH) is a 14.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Miami (OH) lost the most recent meeting with Cincinnati.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Miami (OH) is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Miami (OH) 31 · Cincinnati 35
- Pregame OV Line
- Cincinnati -14.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Cincinnati -14.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Cincinnati by 4
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineCincinnati -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Cincinnati -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusCincinnati -14.5Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Cincinnati -14.5Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Miami (OH) 12.4%Cincinnati 87.6%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Cincinnati -14.5
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