Offense#130
-11.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.07 #118 FBSSuccess rate34.7% #132 FBS
Mid-American · #136 of 138
Kent State
Implied Strength-22.3vs. FBS average · ±4.0
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility10%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule97thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Ohio StateWeek 3 · OV Line KENT +53.5 · <0.01% win chance →Toughest remaining test#1 Ohio StateWeek 3 · <0.01% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#138
-11.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.20 #103 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.3% #108 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Kent State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 4–8 (3.6 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 3 winsCentral 80% 2–6 winsBowl eligible 10.4%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Kent State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production64.1%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class123rdof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production136thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.5Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Spread:SC -35vs.SC -35.5
1 FactorKent State at South Carolina · Columbia, SC · Williams-Brice Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Kent State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS50%5–5–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.5 pts55% inside 3 points · 6 of 11
Factor coverage45%5 of 11 games
Factor signals80% aligned4 of 5 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample11 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Kent State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 4 | 8.6 pts toward Kent State | 100%4 of 4 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.8 pts toward Kent State | —0 of 0 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 11 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Northern IllinoisAway | Kent State +11.5 | Kent State +5 | 6.4 pts toward Kent State | None identified | 6.4 pts toward Kent State | W 35–31 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Central MichiganHome | Kent State +9.5 | Kent State +7.5 | 1.8 pts toward Kent State | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Kent State | L 16–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at AkronAway | Kent State +9.5 | Kent State +7.5 | 2.1 pts toward Kent State | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Kent State | W 42–35 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at Ball StateAway | Kent State +7 | Kent State +3 | 4.0 pts toward Kent State | None identified | 4.0 pts toward Kent State | L 13–17 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Bowling GreenHome | Kent State +10 | Kent State +7.5 | 2.4 pts toward Kent State | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Kent State | W 24–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at ToledoAway | Kent State +32 | Kent State +25.5 | 6.4 pts toward Kent State | 4.4 pts toward Kent State | 2.0 pts toward Kent State | L 10–45 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. MassachusettsHome | Kent State -2.5 | Kent State -1.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 42–6 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at OklahomaAway | Kent State +51.5 | Kent State +46.5 | 5.2 pts toward Kent State | 10.2 pts toward Kent State | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 0–44 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W4 | at Florida StateAway | Kent State +51.5 | Kent State +45 | 6.5 pts toward Kent State | 9.0 pts toward Kent State | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 10–66 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | at Texas TechAway | Kent State +50.5 | Kent State +48 | 2.6 pts toward Kent State | 9.8 pts toward Kent State | 7.1 pts toward opponents | L 14–62 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. MerrimackHome | Kent State -5.5 | Kent State -5.5 | No net direction | 0.8 pts toward Kent State | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 21–17 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 11 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.