Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
South Florida enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyKent State at South Florida
Week 7 · Oct 17Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
South Florida -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusSouth Florida -20.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
South Florida -20.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward South FloridaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
South Florida enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
South Florida enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
South Florida has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
South Florida is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
South Florida is favored by 20.8 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
South Florida ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Kent State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Kent State enters after losing its previous lined game by 31 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Kent State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Kent State is a 20.8-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Kent State 2 · South Florida 29
- Pregame OV Line
- South Florida -20
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- South Florida -20.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- South Florida by 27
Observed 9h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineSouth Florida -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSouth Florida -20.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
South Florida -20.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Kent State 6.0%South Florida 94.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · South Florida -20.5
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