Kent State at South Carolina

Week 1 · Sep 5Williams-Brice Stadium · Columbia, SC
Kent State1–1-22.3 vs. avg · #136
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South Carolina2–0+12.7 vs. avg · #25

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineSouth Carolina -35Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusSouth Carolina -36.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineSouth Carolina -35Factor Adjustments~3 pts toward Kent StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineSouth Carolina -32Unexplained Gap~4.5 pts toward South CarolinaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineSouth Carolina -35Factor adjustment (Open)~3.5 pts toward Kent StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)South Carolina -31.5Opening Market ConsensusSouth Carolina -34Unexplained at open~2.5 pts toward South CarolinaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward South CarolinaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)South Carolina -32Current Market ConsensusSouth Carolina -36.5Unexplained gap~4.5 pts toward South CarolinaExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~3 pts toward Kent StateAt open ~3.5 pts toward Kent StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward South Carolina

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~3 pts toward Kent StateAt open ~3.5 pts toward Kent StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward South Carolina
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put South Carolina's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 63%. Historically, the market shaded about 3.0 points toward Kent State (average-estimate range 2.1–4.4), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

South Carolina is favored by 36.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

South Carolina begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Kent State is a 36.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Kent State 0 · South Carolina 57
Pregame OV Line
South Carolina -35
Final recorded market
South Carolina -36.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
South Carolina -32
Actual margin
South Carolina by 57

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Kent State 0.5%South Carolina 99.5%

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Compare Teams

Kent StateVSSouth Carolina

Model View

Overall Rating-22.3 · #136+12.7 · #25
Offense Rating-11.3+4.9
Defense Rating-11.0+7.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.070.10
Offense Success Rate34.7%38.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.200.08
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.3%41.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.56.3
Playoff Odds<0.01%6.0%
Strength of Schedule Rank97th15th