Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNorth Dakota State at Sacramento State
Week 3 · Sep 19Hornet Stadium · Sacramento, CA
Matchup View
Opening Line
North Dakota State -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
North Dakota State -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -27.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
North Dakota State -27.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~12.5 pts toward North Dakota StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after losing its previous lined game by 46 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Sacramento State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State is a 27.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Sacramento State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
North Dakota State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
North Dakota State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
North Dakota State is favored by 27.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
North Dakota State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
North Dakota State is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineNorth Dakota State -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
North Dakota State -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -26Based on 2 books
North Dakota State -26Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
North Dakota State 88.0%Sacramento State 12.0%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · North Dakota State -27.5
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