Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Ball State was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySacramento State at Ball State
Week 8 · Oct 24Scheumann Stadium · Muncie, IN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Ball State -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Ball State -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusBall State -14.511-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
Ball State -14.511-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward Ball StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
Ball State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Ball State has covered at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Ball State is favored by 14.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Ball State faces materially stronger Massachusetts in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Ball State is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Massachusetts.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after losing its previous lined game by 41 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Sacramento State has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Sacramento State is a 14.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Sacramento State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Sacramento State 17 · Ball State 34
- Pregame OV Line
- Ball State -12
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Ball State -14.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Ball State by 17
Observed 1h 17m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineBall State -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Ball State -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusBall State -12Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Ball State -12Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Sacramento State 17.4%Ball State 82.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Ball State -14.5
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