Mississippi Valley State at Sacramento State

Week 1 · Sep 5Hornet Stadium · Sacramento, CA
Mississippi Valley StateFCS
@
Sacramento State2–7-30.3 vs. avg · #138

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineSacramento State -27.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusSacramento State -38.56-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 9:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineSacramento State -27.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineSacramento State -29Unexplained Gap~9.5 pts toward Sacramento StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineSacramento State -27.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Sacramento State -29Opening Market ConsensusSacramento State -35.5Unexplained at open~6.5 pts toward Sacramento StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Sacramento State -29Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusSacramento State -38.5Unexplained gap~9.5 pts toward Sacramento StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateAt open ~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Sacramento State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateAt open ~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Sacramento State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Sacramento State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 62%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.4 points toward Sacramento State (average-estimate range 0.6–2.2), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Mississippi Valley State 0 · Sacramento State 52
Pregame OV Line
Sacramento State -27.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Sacramento State -38.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Sacramento State -29
Actual margin
Sacramento State by 52

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Mississippi Valley State 2.2%Sacramento State 97.8%

Compare Teams

Mississippi Valley StateVSSacramento State

Model View

Overall Rating—-30.3 · #138
Offense Rating—-15.2
Defense Rating—-15.2

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play——
Offense Success Rate——
Defense PPA/Play Allowed——
Defense Success Rate Allowed——

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—4.6
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—131st