Mississippi Valley State at Sacramento State

Week 1 · Sep 5Hornet Stadium · Sacramento, CA
Mississippi Valley StateFCS
@
Sacramento State1–2-19.5 vs. avg · #132

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineSacramento State -27.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusSacramento State -35.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineSacramento State -27.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineSacramento State -29Unexplained Gap~6.5 pts toward Sacramento StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineSacramento State -27.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Sacramento State -29Opening Market ConsensusSacramento State -35.5Unexplained at open~6.5 pts toward Sacramento StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Sacramento State -29Current Market ConsensusSacramento State -35.5Unexplained gap~6.5 pts toward Sacramento StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateAt open ~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Sacramento State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateAt open ~1.5 pts toward Sacramento StateIn-week < 0.5 pts toward Sacramento State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Sacramento State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 62%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.4 points toward Sacramento State (average-estimate range 0.6–2.2), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Mississippi Valley State 0 · Sacramento State 52
Pregame OV Line
Sacramento State -27.5
Final recorded market
Sacramento State -35.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Sacramento State -29
Actual margin
Sacramento State by 52

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Mississippi Valley State 2.2%Sacramento State 97.8%

Compare Teams

Mississippi Valley StateVSSacramento State

Model View

Overall Rating—-19.5 · #132
Offense Rating—-9.8
Defense Rating—-9.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play——
Offense Success Rate——
Defense PPA/Play Allowed——
Defense Success Rate Allowed——

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—4.6
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—135th