Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
BYU enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyArizona State at BYU
Week 9 · Oct 31LaVell Edwards Stadium · Provo, UT
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
BYU -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
BYU -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusBYU -16.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
BYU -16.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward BYUExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
BYU was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
BYU enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
BYU is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
BYU is favored by 16.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
BYU begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
BYU ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
BYU lost the most recent meeting with Arizona State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
BYU faces materially stronger Utah in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
BYU is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Utah.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Arizona State was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Arizona State is a 16.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Arizona State 20 · BYU 27
- Pregame OV Line
- BYU -12.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- BYU -16.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- BYU by 7
Observed 9h 55m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineBYU -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
BYU -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusBYU -14.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
BYU -14.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Arizona State 16.6%BYU 83.4%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · BYU -16.5
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 31.