Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyKansas State at Arizona State
Week 8 · Oct 24Mountain America Stadium · Tempe, AZ
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Kansas State -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Kansas State -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusKansas State -111-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
Kansas State -111-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Arizona StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona State enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Arizona State has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Arizona State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Kansas State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Kansas State lost the most recent meeting with Arizona State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Kansas State 17 · Arizona State 28
- Pregame OV Line
- Kansas State -2.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Kansas State -1
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Arizona State by 11
Observed 1h 32m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineKansas State -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Kansas State -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusKansas State -3.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Kansas State -3.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Kansas State 58.0%Arizona State 42.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Kansas State -1
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