Northern Arizona at Arizona

Week 1 · Sep 5Arizona Stadium · Tucson, AZ
Northern ArizonaFCS
@
Arizona1–1+9.5 vs. avg · #32

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineArizona -35Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusArizona -31.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineArizona -35Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward ArizonaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineArizona -36.5Unexplained Gap~5 pts toward Northern ArizonaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineArizona -35Factor adjustment (Open)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Arizona -35Opening Market ConsensusArizona -31.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward Northern ArizonaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward ArizonaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Arizona -36.5Current Market ConsensusArizona -31.5Unexplained gap~5 pts toward Northern ArizonaExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward ArizonaAt open < 0.5 pts toward ArizonaIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Arizona

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward ArizonaAt open < 0.5 pts toward ArizonaIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Arizona
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Arizona's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 75%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.7 points toward Arizona (average-estimate range 0.9–2.8), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Northern Arizona 7 · Arizona 35
Pregame OV Line
Arizona -35
Final recorded market
Arizona -31.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Arizona -36.5
Actual margin
Arizona by 28

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Northern Arizona 0.5%Arizona 99.5%

Compare Teams

Northern ArizonaVSArizona

Model View

Overall Rating—+9.5 · #32
Offense Rating—+3.9
Defense Rating—+5.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.17
Offense Success Rate—42.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.07
Defense Success Rate Allowed—37.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.3
Playoff Odds—2.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank—49th