Northern Arizona at Arizona

Week 1 · Sep 5Arizona Stadium · Tucson, AZ
Northern ArizonaFCS
@
Arizona6–2+14.8 vs. avg · #21

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineArizona -35Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusArizona -337-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 9:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineArizona -35Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward ArizonaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineArizona -36.5Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Northern ArizonaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineArizona -35Factor adjustment (Open)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Arizona -35Opening Market ConsensusArizona -31.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward Northern ArizonaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward ArizonaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Arizona -36.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusArizona -33Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward Northern ArizonaExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward ArizonaAt open < 0.5 pts toward ArizonaIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Arizona

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward ArizonaAt open < 0.5 pts toward ArizonaIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Arizona
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Arizona's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 75%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.7 points toward Arizona (average-estimate range 0.9–2.8), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Northern Arizona 7 · Arizona 35
Pregame OV Line
Arizona -35
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Arizona -33
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Arizona -36.5
Actual margin
Arizona by 28

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Northern Arizona 0.5%Arizona 99.5%

Compare Teams

Northern ArizonaVSArizona

Model View

Overall Rating—+14.8 · #21
Offense Rating—+6.6
Defense Rating—+8.2

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.17
Offense Success Rate—42.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.07
Defense Success Rate Allowed—37.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.3
Playoff Odds—17.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank—59th