Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNorthern Illinois at Arizona
Week 3 · Sep 19Arizona Stadium · Tucson, AZ
Matchup View
Opening Line
Arizona -30Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona -30Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusArizona -34.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Arizona -34.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4.5 pts toward ArizonaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Arizona is favored by 34.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Arizona begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Arizona ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Arizona faces materially stronger Washington State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Arizona is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Washington State.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Northern Illinois enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Northern Illinois enters after losing its previous lined game by 40 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Northern Illinois is a 34.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineArizona -30Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona -30Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusArizona -35Based on 2 books
Arizona -35Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Northern Illinois 1.0%Arizona 99.0%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Arizona -34.5
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