Cold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Arizona has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCincinnati at Arizona
Week 5 · Oct 3Arizona Stadium · Tucson, AZ
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Arizona -10Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona -10Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusArizona -6.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Arizona -6.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward CincinnatiExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Arizona begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Arizona ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Cincinnati was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Cincinnati enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStraight-up hot streak Developing estimate
Cincinnati has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Cincinnati lost the most recent meeting with Arizona.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Cincinnati 7 · Arizona 34
- Pregame OV Line
- Arizona -10
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Arizona -6.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Arizona by 27
Observed 14h 32m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineArizona -10Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona -10Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusArizona -7.5Earliest observed 3-book consensus
Arizona -7.5Earliest observed 3-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Cincinnati 21.8%Arizona 78.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Arizona -6.5
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