Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTCU at Arizona
Week 10 · Nov 6Arizona Stadium · Tucson, AZ
Matchup View
Opening Line
Arizona -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusArizona -9.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Arizona -9.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Arizona is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Arizona begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Arizona ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Arizona lost the most recent meeting with TCU.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Arizona lost the most recent meeting with TCU by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
TCU enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineArizona -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Arizona -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusArizona -9.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Arizona -9.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
TCU 23.2%Arizona 76.8%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Arizona -9.5
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