Offense#33
+4.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.11 #101 FBSSuccess rate41.5% #79 FBS
Big 12 · #29 of 138
Houston
Implied Strength+11.0vs. FBS average · ±4.0
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds10%make the 12-team field
Conference Title3%win Big 12
Strength of Schedule53rdof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Texas TechWeek 3 · OV Line HOU +14 · 13% win chance →Toughest remaining test#8 Texas TechWeek 3 · 13% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 1.5 rating points.
Defense#27
+6.2vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.11 #47 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.2% #63 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Houston's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 8–4 (8.1 expected wins), with a 10% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 8 winsCentral 80% 6–10 winsBowl eligible 94.6%Undefeated 0.8%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
10.5%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached10.5% total
Auto-bid3.5%
At-large7.0%
Outside field89.5%
Conference title3.5%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Houston. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production81.2%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class75thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production63rdof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total8.1Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Houston through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS53%18–16–1 against consensus
Average line gap2.8 pts69% inside 3 points · 24 of 35
Factor coverage17%6 of 35 games
Factor signals71% aligned5 of 7 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample35 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Houston games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 4 | 0.1 pts toward Houston | 100%4 of 4 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 3.3 pts toward Houston | 33%1 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 35 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at BaylorAway | Houston +5 | Houston +2.5 | 2.3 pts toward Houston | None identified | 2.3 pts toward Houston | W 31–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. TCUHome | Houston +2.5 | Houston +1.5 | 1.1 pts toward Houston | 1.1 pts toward Houston | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 14–17 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | at UCFAway | Houston +3 | Houston +1.5 | 1.3 pts toward Houston | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Houston | W 30–27 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Houston -12.5 | Houston -13 | 0.5 pts toward Houston | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Houston | L 35–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at Arizona StateAway | Houston +9.5 | Houston +7.5 | 1.9 pts toward Houston | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Houston | W 24–16 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. ArizonaHome | Houston -2 | Houston +2 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.0 pts toward opponents | W 31–28 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Houston -13 | Houston -14.5 | 1.7 pts toward Houston | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Houston | W 39–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Texas TechHome | Houston +9.5 | Houston +13 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 2.1 pts toward opponents | L 11–35 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | at Oregon StateAway | Houston -10 | Houston -11.5 | 1.5 pts toward Houston | 1.9 pts toward Houston | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. ColoradoHome | Houston -4.5 | Houston -4 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 36–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | at RiceAway | Houston -16 | Houston -13.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 35–9 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Stephen F. AustinHome | Houston -27 | Houston -24 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward Houston | 6.0 pts toward opponents | W 27–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W14 | at BYUAway | Houston +14 | Houston +12 | 1.9 pts toward Houston | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Houston | L 18–30 | P | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. BaylorHome | Houston +7 | Houston +7 | 0.1 pts toward Houston | None identified | 0.1 pts toward Houston | L 10–20 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at ArizonaAway | Houston +6.5 | Houston +1 | 5.4 pts toward Houston | None identified | 5.4 pts toward Houston | L 3–27 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Houston +13 | Houston +12.5 | 0.7 pts toward Houston | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Houston | W 24–19 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. UtahHome | Houston +10.5 | Houston +4.5 | 6.0 pts toward Houston | None identified | 6.0 pts toward Houston | W 17–14 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. KansasNeutral | Houston +11 | Houston +4.5 | 6.6 pts toward Houston | None identified | 6.6 pts toward Houston | L 14–42 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | at TCUAway | Houston +13.5 | Houston +16.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 30–19 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Houston +14 | Houston +16.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.3 pts toward opponents | L 0–20 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | at CincinnatiAway | Houston +5 | Houston +4 | 1.2 pts toward Houston | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Houston | L 0–34 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | at OklahomaAway | Houston +41 | Houston +27.5 | 13.6 pts toward Houston | 4.7 pts toward Houston | 8.9 pts toward Houston | L 12–16 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | at UCFAway | Houston +13.5 | Houston +15.5 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 13–27 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Houston +7 | Houston +6.5 | 0.6 pts toward Houston | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Houston | L 30–43 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. CincinnatiHome | Houston -1 | Houston -3 | 2.0 pts toward Houston | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Houston | L 14–24 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at BaylorAway | Houston +2 | Houston +2.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 25–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at Kansas StateAway | Houston +20.5 | Houston +17.5 | 3.2 pts toward Houston | None identified | 3.2 pts toward Houston | L 0–41 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. TexasHome | Houston +22 | Houston +23.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Houston | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 24–31 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Houston +3.5 | Houston +3 | 0.3 pts toward Houston | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Houston | W 41–39 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at Texas TechAway | Houston +12.5 | Houston +8.5 | 4.0 pts toward Houston | None identified | 4.0 pts toward Houston | L 28–49 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. TCUHome | Houston +9.5 | Houston +7.5 | 2.3 pts toward Houston | None identified | 2.3 pts toward Houston | L 13–36 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at SMUAway | Houston +3.5 | Houston +3.5 | 0.2 pts toward Houston | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Houston | L 63–77 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at MemphisAway | Houston +4.5 | Houston +1.5 | 2.9 pts toward Houston | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Houston | W 33–32 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. KansasHome | Houston -11 | Houston -8.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 30–48 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | at Texas TechAway | Houston +15.5 | Houston +4 | 11.3 pts toward Houston | None identified | 11.3 pts toward Houston | L 30–33 | W | None identified |
Sample: 35 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.