Cincinnati at Houston

Week 10 · Nov 7TDECU Stadium · Houston, TX
Cincinnati5–3+4.5 vs. avg · #53
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Houston6–2+12.9 vs. avg · #30

Matchup View

Opening LineHouston -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusHouston -10.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineHouston -11Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward HoustonOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineHouston -12Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward CincinnatiExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineHouston -11Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward HoustonOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Houston -12Opening Market ConsensusHouston -10.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward CincinnatiSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Houston -12Current Market ConsensusHouston -10.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward CincinnatiExplore similar gaps Houston has extra rest~1 pt toward Houston

Houston has extra rest

~1 pt toward Houston

Houston has 6.7 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.0 points toward Houston; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Houston enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Houston enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Houston is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-total favorite Inconclusive

Houston is favored in a game with a consensus total of 62.5.

Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Houston begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Houston lost the most recent meeting with Cincinnati.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Houston lost the most recent meeting with Cincinnati by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Cincinnati enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Cincinnati enters after losing its previous lined game by 24 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
Cincinnati 20.1%Houston 79.9%

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Compare Teams

CincinnatiVSHouston

Model View

Overall Rating+4.5 · #53+12.9 · #30
Offense Rating+4.1+5.7
Defense Rating+0.4+7.2

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.300.11
Offense Success Rate46.8%41.5%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.190.11
Defense Success Rate Allowed43.9%41.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.18.1
Playoff Odds0.1%15.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank45th47th