Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Houston is favored by 20.8 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyOregon State at Houston
Week 1 · Sep 5TDECU Stadium · Houston, TX
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Houston -19.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Houston -19.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusHouston -212-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Houston -212-book consensus · updated Aug 26Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward HoustonExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Houston begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Oregon State is a 20.8-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Oregon State lost the most recent meeting with Houston.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Oregon State faces materially stronger Texas Tech in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySeason Opener with a New Head Coach No separate adjustment
JaMarcus Shephard begins his first Oregon State season; Houston returns Willie Fritz. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.
Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Oregon State 20 · Houston 33
- Pregame OV Line
- Houston -19.5
- Final recorded market
- Houston -21
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Houston by 13
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineHouston -19.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Houston -19.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusHouston -18.5Based on 2 books
Houston -18.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Oregon State 7.8%Houston 92.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Houston -21
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Sep 5.