Houston at Kansas State

Week 6 · Oct 10Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Manhattan, KS
Houston6–2+12.9 vs. avg · #30
@
Kansas State4–4+4.2 vs. avg · #54

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineKansas State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusKansas State -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 10, 12:16 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineKansas State -1Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Kansas StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineKansas State -2Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Kansas StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineKansas State -1Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Kansas StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Kansas State -2Opening Market ConsensusKansas State -2.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward Kansas StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Kansas State -2Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusKansas State -2.5Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward Kansas StateExplore similar gaps Kansas State has extra rest~1 pt toward Kansas State

Kansas State has extra rest

~1 pt toward Kansas State

Kansas State has 6.7 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.0 points toward Kansas State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Houston 35 · Kansas State 16
Pregame OV Line
Kansas State -1
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Kansas State -2.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Kansas State -2
Actual margin
Houston by 19

Observed 3h 13m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Houston 46.5%Kansas State 53.5%

Make Your Picks

Open until scheduled kickoff

Who will win this game?

Straight-up winner

Your winner pick refines your personal ratings. Game location is accounted for; your spread pick records where you differ from the market.

Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 10.

Compare Teams

HoustonVSKansas State

Model View

Overall Rating+12.9 · #30+4.2 · #54
Offense Rating+5.7+3.0
Defense Rating+7.2+1.2

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.110.21
Offense Success Rate41.5%40.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.110.12
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.2%39.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total8.18.2
Playoff Odds15.8%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank47th57th