Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Utah begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyArkansas at Utah
Week 2 · Sep 12Rice-Eccles Stadium · Salt Lake City, UT
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Utah -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Utah -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusUtah -12.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Utah -12.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward UtahExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Utah ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Arkansas ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Arkansas faces materially stronger Georgia in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Arkansas 10 · Utah 43
- Pregame OV Line
- Utah -11
- Final recorded market
- Utah -12.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Utah by 33
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineUtah -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Utah -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusUtah -11.5Based on 2 books
Utah -11.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Arkansas 19.4%Utah 80.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Utah -12.5
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