Idaho at Utah

Week 1 · Sep 3Rice-Eccles Stadium · Salt Lake City, UT
IdahoFCS
@
Utah2–0+14.2 vs. avg · #21

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineUtah -40Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusUtah -33.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUtah -40Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward UtahOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUtah -41Unexplained Gap~7.5 pts toward IdahoExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineUtah -40Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward IdahoOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Utah -39.5Opening Market ConsensusUtah -32.5Unexplained at open~7 pts toward IdahoSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward UtahOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Utah -41Current Market ConsensusUtah -33.5Unexplained gap~7.5 pts toward IdahoExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1 pt toward UtahAt open ~0.5 pts toward IdahoIn-week ~2 pts toward Utah

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1 pt toward UtahAt open ~0.5 pts toward IdahoIn-week ~2 pts toward Utah
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Utah's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 82%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.1 points toward Utah (average-estimate range 0.2–2.2), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Idaho 14 · Utah 66
Pregame OV Line
Utah -40
Final recorded market
Utah -33.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Utah -41
Actual margin
Utah by 52

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Idaho 0.2%Utah 99.8%

Compare Teams

IdahoVSUtah

Model View

Overall Rating—+14.2 · #21
Offense Rating—+9.2
Defense Rating—+5.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.35
Offense Success Rate—49.5%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.07
Defense Success Rate Allowed—38.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—8.8
Playoff Odds—30.5%
Strength of Schedule Rank—54th