Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Arkansas enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyGeorgia at Arkansas
Week 3 · Sep 19Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville, AR
Matchup View
Opening Line
Georgia -20.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Georgia -20.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusGeorgia -24.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Georgia -24.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward GeorgiaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Arkansas enters after losing its previous lined game by 33 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Arkansas is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Arkansas is a 24.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Arkansas ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Arkansas lost the most recent meeting with Georgia.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Arkansas lost the most recent meeting with Georgia by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Georgia enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Georgia enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Georgia is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Georgia is favored by 24.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Georgia begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Georgia ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Georgia is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Georgia faces materially stronger Oklahoma in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Georgia is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Oklahoma.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineGeorgia -20.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Georgia -20.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia -21Based on 2 books
Georgia -21Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Georgia 94.4%Arkansas 5.6%
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Market consensus · Georgia -24.5
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