North Alabama at Arkansas

Week 1 · Sep 5Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville, AR
North AlabamaFCS
@
Arkansas1–1+2.9 vs. avg · #57

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineArkansas -39.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusArkansas -40.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineArkansas -39.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward ArkansasOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineArkansas -40.5Unexplained GapNone at displayed precisionOnVarsity Opening LineArkansas -39.5Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward North AlabamaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Arkansas -39Opening Market ConsensusArkansas -40.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward ArkansasSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward ArkansasOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Arkansas -40.5Current Market ConsensusArkansas -40.5Unexplained gapNone at displayed precisionLopsided game-flow uncertainty~1 pt toward ArkansasAt open ~0.5 pts toward North AlabamaIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Arkansas

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1 pt toward ArkansasAt open ~0.5 pts toward North AlabamaIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Arkansas
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Arkansas's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 81%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.1 points toward Arkansas (average-estimate range 0.3–2.2), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?North Alabama 14 · Arkansas 31
Pregame OV Line
Arkansas -39.5
Final recorded market
Arkansas -40.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Arkansas -40.5
Actual margin
Arkansas by 17

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
North Alabama 0.2%Arkansas 99.8%

Compare Teams

North AlabamaVSArkansas

Model View

Overall Rating—+2.9 · #57
Offense Rating—+3.0
Defense Rating—-0.2

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.30
Offense Success Rate—48.7%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.25
Defense Success Rate Allowed—46.0%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—3.9
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—1st