Delaware at Western Kentucky

Week 9 · Oct 27Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Bowling Green, KY

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineWestern Kentucky -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusWestern Kentucky -111-book consensus · observed Oct 26, 4:23 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineWestern Kentucky -1.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Western KentuckyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineWestern Kentucky -2.5Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward DelawareExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineWestern Kentucky -1.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Western KentuckyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Western Kentucky -2.5Opening Market ConsensusDelaware -1Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward DelawareSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Western Kentucky -2.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusWestern Kentucky -1Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward DelawareExplore similar gaps Western Kentucky has extra rest~1 pt toward Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky has extra rest

~1 pt toward Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky has 6.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 0.9 points toward Western Kentucky; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Delaware enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Delaware enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Delaware lost the most recent meeting with Western Kentucky.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Delaware 35 · Western Kentucky 21
Pregame OV Line
Western Kentucky -1.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Western Kentucky -1
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Western Kentucky -2.5
Actual margin
Delaware by 14

Observed 26h 36m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Delaware 44.9%Western Kentucky 55.1%

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Compare Teams

DelawareVSWestern Kentucky

Model View

Overall Rating-13.0 · #115-15.1 · #119
Offense Rating-4.3-7.5
Defense Rating-8.7-7.6

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.190.17
Offense Success Rate43.3%43.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.210.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.3%36.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.27.1
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank119th94th