Sam Houston at Liberty

Week 6 · Oct 8Williams Stadium (VA) · Lynchburg, VA
Sam Houston1–7-22.3 vs. avg · #133
@
Liberty7–1+0.5 vs. avg · #71

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineLiberty -15.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLiberty -13.511-book consensus · observed Oct 8, 8:05 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineLiberty -15.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Sam HoustonOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineLiberty -14Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Sam HoustonExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineLiberty -15.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Sam HoustonOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Liberty -14Opening Market ConsensusLiberty -13.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward Sam HoustonSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Liberty -14Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLiberty -13.5Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward Sam HoustonExplore similar gaps Sam Houston has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Sam Houston

Sam Houston has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Sam Houston

Sam Houston has 6.3 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.6 points toward Sam Houston; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Sam Houston 3 · Liberty 35
Pregame OV Line
Liberty -15.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Liberty -13.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Liberty -14
Actual margin
Liberty by 32

Observed 10h 54m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Sam Houston 12.0%Liberty 88.0%

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Sam HoustonVSLiberty

Model View

Overall Rating-22.3 · #133+0.5 · #71
Offense Rating-11.8+1.1
Defense Rating-10.5-0.6

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.000.17
Offense Success Rate36.3%43.5%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.240.20
Defense Success Rate Allowed47.9%41.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.18.3
Playoff Odds<0.01%2.2%
Strength of Schedule Rank115th137th