Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Massachusetts enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBall State at Massachusetts
Week 10 · Nov 4Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Hadley, MA
Matchup View
Opening Line
Massachusetts -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Massachusetts -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusMassachusetts -3.510-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Massachusetts -3.510-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Massachusetts enters after losing its previous lined game by 19 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Massachusetts enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Massachusetts enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Massachusetts is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Massachusetts faces materially stronger Toledo in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Ball State has covered at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineMassachusetts -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Massachusetts -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMassachusetts -3.5Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Massachusetts -3.5Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Ball State 39.3%Massachusetts 60.7%
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Market consensus · Massachusetts -3.5
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